As has been explained ad nauseum I am in 100% buy mode currently. Note that I am always fully invested but there are times when extreme opportunities pop up which can lead to an increase in re-shuffling and more importantly increased effort to get more dry powder.

Right now there are numerous juniors out there that are down some 70% from 52w high mostly due to the ever present oscillations in investor sentiment. When things go down people get bad feelings and become “Risk averse”. When things go up people get good feelings and get an increased appetite for risk due to obvious positive re-enforcements of near term hind sight. This is also why most never beat the market since one ends up buying when upside potential is diminished and risks are higher and vice versa.

I don’t know how many people I have recently seen talking about “Don’t go against the trend” and “It’s not wise to catch falling knives”.  This sounds good and all in theory but is in my opinion also extremely dumb during tax loss silly season. Why? Because the stocks that are down the most already tend to get the most (artificial) punishment. Lets say a company was trading at $15 M in EV 6 months ago and you thought it was worth $30 M at the time. Fast forward to today and lets say the EV is $5 M and the company has made enough progress that you deem fair value to be $40 M in light of the currently quite high gold price…

How god damn stupid would it be NOT to “catch the falling knife” or going “against the trend” in that case………………..?

“Oh no it could go lower, I don’t dare to buy!”

I mean come on. Do you think Warren Buffett would say no to a PE4 company because he was afraid there was a “risk” of it going to PE2……..?

No way in hell.

If something is cheap it is cheap. There are no ifs or buts. Buying cheap is NEVER a mistake REGARDLESS if it happens to go lower before it goes higher.

There are absolutely no brainer buys out there and I literally cannot comprehend how anyone could come to the conclusion of it being a good idea to sell juniors since they have probably not been cheaper than this in the last two decades.

It drives me up the wall to see some people throw in the towel right now when the undervaluation across the board is so obvious that a 5 year old could identify it.

Diversify like crazy if need be but this is a lay up in terms of R/R and the tax loss silly season is nearing an end.


Best regards,

The Hedgeless Horseman

8 thoughts on “Musings

  1. HelmholzWatson says:

    Have you checked out First Mining Gold? Short version: multi-million ounce resource in Ontario, $30 million in the bank, planned 30K meter drill program, large shareholder in “Treasury Metals, Pickle Crow Gold Project (Auteco Minerals) and Hope Brook Gold Project (Big Ridge Gold), [21] strategic royalty portfolio along with other wholly owned properties: Cameron, Duparquet, Duquesne and Pitt.” Here is their recent presentation.
    Current market cap $174 million.

    Also, check out QC Copper’s last two interviews on Crux Investor and their presentation. Short version: Large resource that the market likes (at an attractive pullback price), cash plus shares in Baseload Energy nearly equals their market cap, 75K meters planned. Current market cap $33 million.

  2. S. says:

    If you had to pick only ONE junior to buy/add to before the end of tax-loss selling season, which one would it be?

    Lion One? Novo? Irving? Labrador? …

    1. Kevin says:

      Irving’s been dead money for me for years… No progress for all kinds of reasons, but the least progress out of any position I own.

      Novo, is the biggest value-stock exploration/mining company I know. They have the goods, but it takes time to develop them, but rest assured, they have them in spades. I would love to add, but I have a large position already and other priorities.

      Eskay Mining has move up a lot and corrected. It has blue sky upside that defines the word blue sky.

      Aurania Resources is on fire sales. I just more than doubled my position. They just had a great drill intercept and 2022 should define some serious resource, gold, copper, zinc and silver.

      I took a Lion One position that was very large for me two years ago. It’s been slow but steady and I think they will have a monster resource, but it will be years to define it as it will continue to grow with drilling and as they de-risk with building a mine to start to add value. I’m not adding because of my large position.

      White Rock Minerals. It’s on double fire sale, as in NO one wants it. I’ve been adding at this ridiculous price.

      NFG has been chopped in half since they took on some much more investment and diluted shareholders. Regardless, with 400K drill program planned, massive treasury, they will deliver and I believe will deliver a 10x from here. I’m adding here if I have cash.

      Eloro, is probably the least risky of my exploration positions. Yet during the tax loss season they also have joined the on sales department. I would add hear if I had cash.

    2. Sonia says:

      I know you didn’t ask me, but I’m Novo all day. Not even The 99¢ Store has anything for 99¢ anymore! Even Dollar Tree is $1.25 now!

    3. Ed Wisniewski says:

      Overweight Lion especialy, New Found & White Gold

  3. Travis Bruce says:

    Personally I’ve been buying only there juniors during this mad mad crazy time in gold juniors and I never EVER thought I’d buy again at these prices. NOVO, DOLLY, and White Gold. I pray they keep dropping so I can continue to buy more. I own more shares of each than I ever dreamed possible and I couldn’t be more at ease with my decision.

  4. Keclonis says:

    Picked Up more WRM.

    Now awaiting Uranium Stock Retracements – DYL – PDN – BOE….

    Just when you say the market will never again do X …. It headbutts you and does it……

  5. Ed Wisniewski says:

    Lion One is a guaranteed mine. Probability of a buyout in 2023 remains high.

    Irving – gotta own some shares. It’s an eventual $1.50-$2 stock with success stories starting by Summer 2022. At 79 cents, price irresistible.

    New Found: If they had 15,000,000 oz, would U buy? Or Wait? Eventually, NFGC becomes multiple mines feeding a central complex. Whisper #’s suggest 10,000,000 oz gold resource. That assay issue is more like an industry practice. By switching to full core assays, NFGC deflates this concern

    White Gold – Perhaps they will discovery a major deposit.AEM giving them $9Mil makes it a worthwhile spec.

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