The following calculations are extremely crude and speculative. We have no idea what the AVG grade, thickness and continuity will be so the numbers should not be used for investment purposes.
Used guesstimates based on Moriarty’s post, the bulk sample and guesstimates etc:
Thickness: 5 m-20 m (AVG 12.5 m)
Grade: 1-2.5 oz/ton
Area: 1500 m x 400 m (phase 1 drill area)
Rock weight: 1 m3 = 2.5 tonnes
A few different scenarios for the phase 1 maiden drill program area:
The diamond core holes will only test for structure, thus help us understand continuity and thickness. A better understanding of grades will come with the bulk samples and large diameter reverse circulation drilling.
IF the bulk sample and guesstimates end up being a good representation of grades and thickness, then continuity will be the main driver. Given Novo’s 7,000 km2 land holdings near Karratha, the blue sky potential is obvious given the above calculations are based on 1.5 km * 0.4 km patch of land. There are a lot of factors that will make or break the case; High grades doesn’t requite large continuity or thickness to be economic. Large continuation doesn’t require 2 oz/ton grades to be economic etc etc.
Note that I am no mining engineer so all of the above is pure speculation. Also, grades/thickness/continuity may all be lower than we think. On the flip side, they may be higher as well.
On a final note, let’s look at some “blue sky” scenarios for the 8 km “fossiker” strike length as well as what amount of gold (in our dream of dreams) could be hosted per 1 km2:
I cannot overstate how speculative in nature this entire post is. We might not come even close to any of the above scenarios.